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Roddick: In weakest quarter
A month ago, we said only three players were capable of winning the French Open.
The surface may have changed but our view hasn't as we head into another Grand Slam tournament and we firmly agree with Sky Bet's assessment that it's a 7/1 shot that the winner comes from outside the 'big three'.
On all the surfaces these days, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are class apart from the rest of the ATP Tour - the problem here is knowing which one will come good in SW19.
Let's assess each of the main contenders.
ROGER FEDERER
In many ways it seems incredible that Federer is available at 5/4 to win this year's tournament.
He arrives at the All England Club as the five-time champion and boasting a winning streak on grass which stretches back six years and encompasses 59 matches.
That price shows how highly regarded both Nadal and Djokovic are, but also highlights the view that Federer is no longer at his peak.
He has lost eight matches already this season. That may not seem many but it's a lot if you are Roger Federer.
Those stats can partly be attributed to the fact that Federer started the year with mononucleosis and duly lost in the semi-finals of the Australian Open to Djokovic. It's a condition many experts believe will still be affecting him today.
Further defeats followed and the hammering he suffered at the hands of Mardy Fish in Indian Wells is bound to be mentioned by TV commentators over the next fortnight.
Things have improved of late, though. In truth, Federer's claycourt season was pretty good. Once again he was easily the second best player on the surface and being second best to a clay great like Nadal is no disgrace.
A major part of the theory spouted by those tipping Federer's reign to end here is the thrashing he received from Nadal in the French Open final - he won just four games.
Poor volleying in Paris will be of concern and it remains to be seen how much confidence has been affected by that defeat. It won't really be known until Federer and Nadal meet again.
That could be in the final here - it's a 7/4 shot with totesport and VC Bet - but Paddy Power already make Federer 1/2 to beat Nadal in the final (bets void if they don't meet).
That's testament to Federer's grasscourt play over the past five years.
And importantly for him, he already appears to have put that Roland Garros loss behind him, returning to the grass in fine fashion in Halle last week.
He bounced back by cantering to victory in Germany where he held serve all week and after lifting the trophy declared he "couldn't be more happy" before crossing the North Sea.
As for his draw, Federer is due to meet Djokovic in the semis - not the best result he could have hoped for. In the early rounds, Robin Soderling in round two looks the most likely player capable of causing him serious problems.
RAFAEL NADAL
Importantly for the four-time French Open winner, Nadal has avoided both Federer and Djokovic in the draw and can't face either player until the final.
That, coupled with Nadal's triumph at Queen's Club, has seen his odds more than halve over the past fortnight. He's now a best of 15/8.
Nadal's effort at Queen's was highly impressive. After just a day's rest following his Roland Garros demolition of Federer, the Spaniard took to the grass in west London and duly claimed his first grasscourt title.
For those of you who followed the BBC's coverage at Queen's you'd have thought Nadal was now nailed on for the title in SW19. However, Auntie's love-in with the Spaniard should be taken in context.
Nadal dropped a set to the unheralded Kei Nishikori and only just survived a big-serving battle with Ivo Karlovic - a match which basically boiled down to one point in the final-set tie-break.
He definitely got better as the week wore on - as his performances against Andy Roddick (in the semis) and Djokovic showed - but does that really make him the favourite to beat grasscourt king Federer? The bookies certainly don't think so, at least not yet.
Nadal certainly knows how to rattle Federer though. He now leads their head-to-heads 11-6 but on grass it's 2-0 Federer, the Swiss edging last year's final in five thrilling sets.
A year on, Nadal should in theory be closer.
ATP Tour stats show just why Nadal is such a threat on grass.
He's ranked third in terms of first-serve percentage (70) and top in both return games won (38 per cent) and points won returning first-serve (37 per cent).
Throw in his excellent defence, court speed and stamina and you have a player who looks sure to go close.
One possible fly in the ointment is a scheduled second-round meeting wih American giant John Isner, a player whose serve resembles Karlovic's which caused Nadal problems at Queen's.
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Djokovic may have lost to Nadal in the final, but otherwise the Serb looked in great nick at Queen's.
He was impressive in thrashing both Lleyton Hewitt and David Nalbandian (losing just five games in toal against the pair) before being edged out in a high-quality final by the world number two.
His agressive game is arguably more suited to testing Federer than Nadal's, as he showed when beating Federer in straight sets in Melbourne at the start of the year.
Despite this he won't have been enamoured to see his name in Federer's half of the draw.
To call upon the tour stats once more, Djokovic is ranked second in break points converted - in short he plays the big points well and that's always an important ability on this surface.
He showed 12 months ago in SW19 that he is an excellent player but his run to the last four has been largely overshadowed by all the talk of Federer and Nadal.
The fact is Djokovic played some great stuff last year but was the player most affected by the rain - he ended up playing on six consecutive days and two epic matches back-to-back left him nursing severe blisters.
He's now an even better player and having won his maiden Grand Slam title in Australia should go close here too.
THE OUTSIDERS
Away from the 'big three', who is capable of challenging?
Andy Roddick and Andy Murray probably have the best claims, although both face a tough ask to get past the favoured triumverate.
Roddick, twice beaten by Federer in the final here, has had the best result in the draw.
He's in the 'other' quarter, away from the big guns, on course to meet Nadal in the semis.
And for that reason, he could turn out to be the best value pick of the tournament. Not in the outright market, but in the quarter betting.
Roddick believes he's been playing his best tennis for two years of late and it's not just talk - he holds wins over Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in recent months.
A shoulder injury set him back a bit but that stood up okay at Queen's where he lost to Nadal in the semis, but again it was a high quality and pretty close match.
And what's to beat in this section?
Dmitry Tursunov is a big hitter dangerous on his day but his form is poor; James Blake has never performed on the grass; Paul-Henri Mathieu is a bit hit and miss; while Nikolay Davydenko - seeded to meet Roddick in the last eight - surely won't get that far. The fact he chose to prepare for this event on clay says all you need to know.
That makes the 5/6 about Roddick reaching the semis with Sky Bet look a value pick - Ladbrokes go just 2/7.
As for Murray's chances?
Well, to use a phrase, Britain's got talent in Murray but the fact remains that he has yet to make a big impact at the Grand Slams and certainly you can't yet put him in the same class as Federer and co.
Rather worrying we are still talking about 'potential', while all the time Murray's reputation is heading more towards that of Tim Henman's: good but not quite good enough.
His game is well suited to the grass though and hs two previous appearances at Wimbledon have seen him reach round three (as an 18-year-old) and beat Roddick en route to the last 16 two years ago.
But his preparation this year has been hampered by another injury - this time his thumb - and he still lacks real consistency.
Placed in Nadal's quarter, it will be interesting to see how Murray starts as he plays French veteran Fabrice Santoro - a player the Scottish star has described as his favourite on the tour for the variety in his game.
OUTRIGHT CONCLUSION
A case has been made for all three of the big guns and we simply don't feel the winner can come from outside of that trio.
If they do indeed progress, there could be a couple of cracking matches come the semis and final but who will lift the trophy?
With his record on grass Federer's 5/4 quote will be snapped up by many and could prove to be a great bet.
But there's no doubt the 'Fed Express' is more vulnerable this season than he's been in a long time and he's no longer the confident pick he once was.
The value in Nadal is probably gone, although his advantage is in the draw and avoiding his fellow big guns.
Djokovic, the biggest price of the trio at 6/1, is probably the best bet in terms of value.
His attacking game is well suited to grass and if anyone is to beat Federer in the top half it is likely to be him - as he did in Melbourne.
However, we simply don't feel any of those prices make great appeal and instead Roddick's quarter bet outlined above is where our main money will rest.
SPECIALS
It's worth mentioning a number of specials available for the tournament.
As already flagged up above, a Federer-Nadal final is a 7/4 chance, while Federer to win the event in straight sets can be backed at 8/1 (Paddy Power), something that looks highly unlikely given he's yet to achieve that feat despite five years of domination.
The 'stage of elimination markets' look to be more intriguing, with many layers pricing up Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray in these.
Interestingly the 'big three' all have potentially tricky matches in round two, with Federer set to face Soderling, Nadal slated to play Isner and Djokovic likely to meet former world number one Marat Safin.
It will be a huge shock, but we simply don't feel Federer should be 14/1 (Sky Bet) to fall at the second hurdle.
Soderling has played some cracking stuff this season and came within a couple of points of beating Nadal here last term.
It's often said that the star players are most vulnerable early in a tournament and with his big serve Soderling is well equipped to cause the top seed problems.
Their only previous meeting on grass featured two tie-breaks and saw Federer edge home 6-4 in the deciding set so while we admit it may well not happen, we're prepared to risk a small stake.
Few saw Boris Becker's defeat to Peter Doohan coming in 1987 or Pete Sampras' loss to Richard Krajicek nine years later - let's hope we can land a big-odds shocker for the current decade.
