Drawing conclusions

Haye: Nicky and Johnny say he will, Jim and Glenn disagree

David Haye stands on the verge of heavyweight glory.

As ever, the Sky Sports team of Jim Watt, Glenn McCrory, Nicky Piper and Johnny Nelson, will be on hand to give you their expert opinions come fight night, but first skysports.com has brought the panel together to set the scene...

SKYSPORTS.COM: Well the time for talking is nearly over, and the same goes for you guys... it's verdict time! How do you think the fight will unfold and more importantly, who is going to win?

GLENN McCRORY: If I listened to my heart, I would back David Haye all day long, but I can't. Don't get me wrong, Valuev isn't a great boxer and is not half as fearsome as you'd expect someone of his size to be, but every time I come up with an argument for David to win, I come up with another counter-argument against it. I actually think Haye needs a fast start here because if he is going to catch Valuev on the chin, he needs to be doing it early on when his power is still there and he is fast and fresh. He has that massive weight difference to deal with and the longer the fight goes on the more that is going to sap Haye's energy and stamina.

I only hope he has put in the hard, hard yards on the road because there are question marks about his ability to go the distance, even at cruiserweight, and I just can't see him knocking Valuev out. But, Ruslan Chagaev has showed that Valuev can be beaten and I hope the same gameplan he used is the one Adam Booth has been adopting - because it clearly works. David needs to build up a decent rhythm, which is what Holyfield did, and he needs to get in and out, and that is not what we are used to him doing. If he is going to pull this off, it is going to need a hugely disciplined performance.

PREDICTION: I worry about Haye's stamina and I do worry that he will be drawn into a fight, which is just what Valuev wants. There is a chance he can catch the Russian early on and if he does land flush on the chin, he has to leap in there and get loads of shots off and hope the ref steps in and stops it, because I just can't see how he knocks him down. But my head can see Haye getting tired and sloppy and then being stopped around the eighth, ninth or 10th round.

NICKY PIPER:The more and more I see of Valuev, the more I start to realise he's not as good as I first thought. I have just sat through the Evander Holyfield fight and he really could have won that easily. So, if he can do that at 46, you've got to ask what Haye can do as a younger, fresher fighter and harder puncher. In that fight Valuev didn't really work that hard and seemed to have plenty left in reserve but perhaps all the stuff David has been coming out with, all the trash talk, might spur him on to put in a bit more.

I do think rather than Haye coming flying out of the blocks, we will see Valuev try to hurt him early on because of that and that might play straight into David's hands. That said, I can see David trying to land a few big shots early on, just to see what affect they have. The one luxury he has is that Valuev is much, much slower than anyone he will have fought and while there might be a concern about his chin, Haye should easily be able to see the shots coming back. Only if he doesn't make a dent early on and then starts to get tired can I see Valuev catching him later on - because stamina has always been one of Haye's problems. Some fighters, like Ricky Hatton and Joe Calzaghe for instance, have it naturally, but David doesn't; his muscles are more like those of a sprinter, designed to create that explosive power.

PREDICTION: A couple of weeks ago, I would've backed Haye to knock him out in three, but as the fight gets closer I can't see David coming at him straight away. But I can see him dancing in and out - which does go against his natural urge to fight - and working his way up through the gears as the fight goes on. I think Haye can become the first man to knock Valuev out and I think he will in four, five or six.

JIM WATT: The first thing to say is Valuev is far from unbeatable. A 46-year-old Evander Holyfield probably should've got the verdict against him; John Ruiz, who is certainly not the most gifted of heavyweights took him close twice and Ruslan Chagaev a southpaw, used skill and speed to beat him. Those are the plus points - and ones that can't be dismissed just because of his sheer physical size. Yet this fight is all about tactics and I think all about what David Haye does - and that is where my concerns come in. If David goes into this fight happy that he doesn't look all that great but wins on points, or if uses his speed to get in, get the punches off and gets back out there and doesn't get drawn into a physical battle, there's a fair chance he can win on Saturday night.

But this is David Haye we are talking about. The reason we are so excited about him and love to watch him is because of the way he acts, the way he fights. David loves producing drama, he wants to please the fans and looking good is really important to him. I am not sure he needs a fast start, but what he needs is an early start. That means winning rounds early on, not rushing out looking for the big shots, and it is vital he is ahead at the halfway point because like it or not, he is eventually going to be drawn into a brawl. Unless David can catch him flush on the chin - and whoever you are, however big you are you can be knocked out - this guy is just going to keep walking him down, getting up close and he will have to weather a very heavy storm in the second half of the fight.

PREDICTION: If I was a betting man I would put money on Valuev to win this, probably on points, simply because he is more experienced at this weight and level. David Haye can pull it off, of course he can, but I would have liked to have seen him have a couple more fights at this weight. I have a horrible feeling what makes him so watchable is what might prevent him coming world heavyweight champion.

JOHNNY NELSON: The more I see of Valuev the more I am convinced it's possible to beat this guy. Everybody has concentrated on his size, but in terms of technical ability he does nothing special. His size is probably why he's won so many fights before and David shouldn't let it be a smokescreen. He needs to go out there, be confident and unbelievably disciplined. If he thinks he is going to knock this guy out it is too easy to depend on that and for the first two or three rounds, focus on that; but if it doesn't come he could easily get disheartened. Like everyone says, Evander Holyfield had it right and David has got to thrown plenty of blind rights and lefts over the top that clip Valuev, not clobber him. He does have a jab to contend with but it is a short jab that falls away at the end, so he can get in close and when he gets there it is all about flurries; two or three shots then out again, nothing greedy.

He has to do that and he has to do it all at speed because that is his one major asset in this. If he can keep a good pace, yet make his attacks unpredictable, he can do this, no problem at all. My one worry is that the gameplan will need unbelievable discipline on David's part and we all know he likes to get involved and that is what makes him the guy he is. But he has to decide to keep his cool, keep his focus all night, because this is the biggest decision of his boxing life.

PREDICTION: I really can see David nicking a points decision. Yes, that is a hard task in Germany and to do that he will have to humiliate Valuev to get there. He's done it out of the ring but he has to make him look stupid, make him miss, really get the crowd baying for his blood. Then, if he sticks to the disciplined gameplan and outboxes him, they have to give him the decision.