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Lewis and Mardle: fighting it out

Adrian Lewis was trembling with the turbulence of his own toss-testerone.

Sid Waddell
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The final week of the regular Whyte & Mackay Premier League Darts season takes us to Newcastle - and for three of the players there's still everything to play for.

Sky Sports commentator Sid Waddell has been with us every week of the season in 2008 and this week he's been getting his calculator out to figure out what could happen in his home city on Thursday.

Sid on Wade v Part
Sid on Van Barneveld v Jenkins
Sid on Taylor v Manley
Sid on Lewis v Mardle

Talk of the Toon

I'm planning to have a much more relaxed night in Newcastle this year.

Last time the Premier League was at the Newcastle Metro Arena, I stayed in a hotel on the Quayside which was about a mile-and-a-half from the venue.

It was pouring with rain and I got in a taxi at 4.45pm to get there for my 5.20pm soundcheck. Unfortunately the traffic was so bad that half an hour later I'd only travelled about 500 yards.

So I jumped out with my briefcase and no overcoat and I sprinted along Grey Street before staggering into the arena, dripping wet. At that point I was told the commentary box was at the highest point on the far right-hand side of the arena.

By the time I'd got to the top of the steps I could barely breathe and when I sat down, the producer came in and wanted me to do some screams over a montage for the show. I was as knackered as I've ever been when we finally got underway at 7.30pm.

So I'm going up much earlier this year. I'll be in a bookshop signing copies of my new Geordie book, Taak of the Toon, in the afternoon and I'm going to make sure I'm at the venue by about 4.30pm.

I'm taking my calculator with me too because trying to figure out who's going to finish fourth is nearly impossible. I don't think Albert Einstein could work out the mathematical possibilities!

Let's take a look at the matches in order...

James Wade v John Part

I think the world champion will be glad to see the back of the Premier League.

John Part's been staying in the UK one week and flying back home to Canada the next and he's found it hard to settle and maintain any sort of consistency.

Sometimes the other players arrive in the host cities two or three days before the event and settle into a routine, but Part has been crossing the Atlantic all the time instead.

We've seen some of his class shine through in the second-half of games and he was arguably at his best when he beat Peter Manley 8-5 in Brighton.

But his real low points came when he lost 8-2 to Terry Jenkins in Bournemouth and when he lost 8-2 to Phil Taylor at Wembley - even though he had a 104 average in that match. After matches like that, he'll be glad to get back home, put his feet up and watch some ice hockey.

As for James Wade, I had a pint with him in Belfast last week and he was too angry to speak after his defeat to Barney. I watched him chomp a ham sandwich in about four angry bites!

He was furious because he'd played well but we didn't see the absolute best of him. However, I don't think we'll see a negative reaction from him and I can see him beating Part 8-4.

Raymond van Barneveld v Terry Jenkins

Barney seems to be over his troubles and he's been looking much smoother in the last couple of weeks.

He cried tears following his win at Wembley because that ended a bad run and then in Belfast he showed good class to come back and beat James Wade. I can see him cashing in on that in Newcastle.

Jenkins was 7-2 down to Part last week, but he won the next three legs with finishes of 161, 136 and 116 before losing 8-5.

He was fine with his three-dart finishes, but at vital times he missed his one-darters. He was riled up afterwards and it's the first time I've seen him looking quite so angry.

I can't see him getting in Barney's way. Jenkins has lost a bit of faith in himself and he won't repeat the sort of form that saw him beat Taylor in Manchester.

I think this will be 8-4 to Barney.

Phil Taylor v Peter Manley

This is where we enter the world of quantum mathematics.

The situation as I see it is that Manley, Lewis and Mardle are all on 11 points, but Manley has by far the best legs difference.

So if Manley beats Taylor then the others won't be able to catch him, no matter what happens in the final match.

If Manley gets a draw, he could still go through if the final game also ends in a draw. But the door would be open for Lewis or Mardle to qualify with a win, but there would be massive pressure on them both.

If Manley loses, then Mardle would qualify with a win - but a draw would be good enough for Lewis.

Confused? You will be.

Personally I think Manley will lose because Taylor is unbeaten in nine matches and he's averaged 107 over the last seven weeks.

The only thing in Manley's favour is that he beat Taylor in Coventry earlier this season.

To do that again, he would need an end average of 115 and I can't see him doing that because he only managed a 90 average in his draw with Lewis last week.

So I don't think Manley's got a chance and I'm tipping Taylor to win 8-2 with an end average of 108. We'll see a couple of misses at the double 16 from Taylor, but that's the only chink in his armour.

Adrian Lewis v Wayne Mardle

I think this could be one of the greatest games we've ever had - but it will certainly be one of the nerviest games we've ever had.

As I said in commentary last week, Adrian was trembling with the turbulence of his own toss-testerone - and I think he'll be the more nervous of the two.

The viewers need to keep their eyes glued to the 60 when Adrian is throwing at the start of the match. If he isn't hitting it twice and he's dipping the dart below that target, then he could be in trouble.

He suffers from what Jocky Wilson used to call the thrutch - where he leaves his hand on the dart for too long and alters the natural flight.

When Wayne is throwing, you need to be looking at the treble-five because if his first few darts land there, you know he has technical problems. The first 12 darts from each will be key because both of them play on high adrenaline.

Adrian came back from 5-2 down to draw with Manley in Belfast. That's significant because he's not usually a good chaser of the game.

Mardle was thrashed by Taylor last week and when these two players met in Coventry, Lewis edged the match 8-6. They'll both be like hopping frogs on a hot plate, but Mardle is likely to be the more frantic of the two.

I've got a feeling that a 95 average will be good enough to win this one, but I can see it being a draw.

It could go all the way to the final two legs and it really could go either way, but I just have a feeling that Lewis will end up going through because the odds are 51 / 49 in his favour.

That would hold up my new reputation as the Nostradamus of darts because I said at the start of February that the new kids on the oche - Wade and Lewis - would be in the mix for Cardiff.